3 BIG IDEAS FROM THE PODCAST
In this week’s episode of Not Fintech Investment Advice, Simon Taylor and I did what we always do: picked a few fintech companies we found interesting … and then let the conversation spiral gloriously out of control.
We started with agentic payments infrastructure, detoured through embedded mortgages for real estate investors, and stumbled our way into other existential questions. It was, in other words, a very Not Fintech Investment Advice episode.
And read on below for my three big ideas …
1. From Card Not Present to Human Not Present
You know how “card not present” became the phrase that defined e-commerce fraud?
We’re now entering the next phase: “human not present.” And the infrastructure for handling identity verification, payment authorizations, and fraud in agentic commerce are being built right now.
Simon and I dug into how companies like Nekuda are preparing for this future by becoming the middleware for autonomous spending (managing payment credentials, injecting them at checkout, and integrating with networks like Visa and Mastercard).
What’s ironic is that after the last five to ten years of trying to keep bots out of e-commerce, we’re now facing the opposite challenge: how do we let the right ones in (under the right parameters)?
It’s strange and a total reversal of everything we’ve been building.
If you’re a bank, processor, or card network, you’re suddenly dealing with 10,000 agents spinning up with someone’s payment credentials. That’s a risk model we’ve never seen before. Liability gets murky (who’s responsible when an agent misfires)? And trust? We don’t even have the frameworks yet. How are we supposed to know what a given agent is even allowed to do?
Not to mention a deeper tension. AI companies promise to protect users’ data. So if they don’t share purchase info with merchants (to stay user-centric), then the internet’s current ad-driven business model starts to unravel. We’ve spent 20 years building a system that depends on tracking people and retargeting them. If that stops working, what replaces it?
We’re not ready. No one is. Visa, PayPal, Google, and Amazon are all circling this space — but the identity, delegation, and authorization layers haven’t caught up … yet.
| 🎬 DIRECTOR’S COMMENTARY “Agent on file” sounds harmless until you realize it means bots can now spend your money. It’s like when banks made checking accounts “free” — they’re not free! — but they become free when you shift the cost to another layer. Agentic commerce could do the same: seamless for merchants, but extractive for users (in invisible ways). The real question is how is paying for the AI agent? If it’s the consumer, the incentives are aligned. However, if it’s “Agentic Commerce, brought to you by Amazon” we may have a problem. (PS. Also, Nekuda’s Substack Unlocking Autonomous Payments is really interesting; highly recommend.) |
2. Stablecoins: The Next BaaS or the End of It?
The GENIUS Act could turn stablecoins into a full-stack banking replacement.
Here’s the deal: the bill creates a new OCC-issued charter for payment stablecoin issuers.
In theory, that charter could give issuers direct access to Fed master accounts, ACH rails, and card networks, effectively replicating (and improving on) what BaaS banks offer today. Effectively…replacing BaaS banks?
And that has big implications.
Right now, community banks dominate the BaaS landscape thanks to a carveout in the Durbin Amendment that exempts banks under $10B in assets from interchange caps. That exemption acts like a government-granted cheat code, one that granted smaller banks an artificial edge in fintech partnerships (which is what fueled their rise in banking-as-a-service).
But if stablecoins become the new backend for money movement, that cheat code stops working.
If you’re a fintech founder, why would you choose Door A (BaaS) when Door B (stablecoins) is simpler, programmable, instant and global by default, and doesn’t require fighting with a bank’s core? Why would you choose banking-as-a-service when regulated stablecoins exist?
That would rewire the fintech stack entirely. And there’s significant money and momentum behind building a stablecoin-based alternative to the current fintech stack.
Of course, this is speculation. Visa and Mastercard could continue requiring bank issuers as intermediaries. Fed master account access is never a certain proposition. And the new charter could still come with plenty of red tape.
But if someone threads the regulatory needle, stablecoins could really compete with BaaS.
| 🎬 DIRECTOR’S COMMENTARY The stablecoin portion of the podcast was more speculative than Simon and I normally are on NFIA because the company we were talking about — Atticus — is hella mysterious. It’s operating in stealth, so no one knows what they do, but they are reportedly about to raise money at a valuation between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, led by Palmer Luckey, the co-founder and CEO of the defense-tech firm Anduril. If that’s not license to speculate, I don’t know what is. |
3. Somebody Build This, I Beg You
This one’s been stuck in my head.
In a recent episode with Alex DeMarco, we talked about gambling addiction — and how a bank or payments company could easily train a predictive model to detect early signs of a gambling problem.
No fancy new hardware needed. Just the will to build it.
Alex put out a call that I want to manifest, which is, could someone please build a predictive model (trained on cash flow data) that flags early signs of gambling problems?
From a data science standpoint, it’s doable if you’ve got transaction data; the patterns are likely detectable (especially if you partner with a company like MoneyStack, which knows what those early signals look like).
And as open banking, transaction visibility, and cash flow analytics become more widespread, I think we’ll see more banks take an interest. Because frankly, it’s in their own best interest. Every dollar lost to gambling is a dollar that’s not going into savings, investments, or a productive part of someone’s financial life.
WHAT I’M LISTENING TO
#1: The Impact of the Newly Established Priorities and Massive Proposed Reduction in Force (RIF) on CFPB Supervision (Consumer Finance Monitor) 🎧
I probably would have gone with a shorter, punchier title for this excellent episode. Something like, “What the Hell is Going On at the CFPB: Edition #283”. Regardless, this one is worth a listen!
#2: Are Banks Really Ready for AI? (Banking With Interest) 🎧
My two favorite bank nerds, finally on the same podcast. It doesn’t matter what the topic is (though AI is a great one). Always listen when Rob and Kiah talk about banking.
#3: What Experts Really Think About Smartphones and Mental Health (Plain English) 🎧
Not a banking or fintech podcast, but Derek Thompson is one of the best reporters and podcasters working today and this is an important topic. My wife and I are planning to keep smartphones away from our kids with a whip and a chair.
WHERE I’LL BE
💻 Fintech Office Hours (Plus Members Only) | June 12th | Zoom
As we do every month, I will be getting together with folks from the Fintech Takes Network to chat about what’s been happening in fintech recently and to answer as many questions as I can. This event is available to Plus Members of the Fintech Takes Network. If you’re interested in learning more about the Network, you can do that here.
💻 Cash Flow Data: The Cure to Credit Score Overreliance | June 24th | Zoom
You wouldn’t run a fraud model on one signal, so why underwrite that way? Credit scores are the same. Join Jason Rosen (Founder & CEO, Prism Data), Martin Kleinbard (Granular Fintech), and yours truly for a candid discussion on cash flow data and strategy. Save your spot: sign up here.
BTW, watch out for a podcast featuring Martin, which will be dropping the day after this event. It’s gonna be spectacularly nerdy.
✈️ Mr. Johnson Goes to Washington | July 14-16 | Washington, D.C.
I am planning to be in D.C. in July for a few days (looking forward to the heat and humidity!) The theme of my visit will be financial inclusion, but I’m game to geek out on whatever topics tickle your fancy if you’d like to grab coffee or a beer.
